According to data provided by the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA), these variations can be attributed to factors such as local and international demand, storage strategies, and the specific conditions of the horticultural market in each country.
A diverse outlook among producing countries
The evolution of apple stocks across Europe has not been uniform, as each country reflects distinct realities based on its production capacity, market dynamics, and distribution policies. These factors have significantly influenced stock levels and trends at the start of the season. Overall, most countries have focused on securing their domestic markets, with prices proving satisfactory.
Austria: Stocks fell by 34.9% compared to the same period last year, translating to a decrease of over 6,300 tons. This drop seems linked to high domestic demand and, naturally, a reduction in local production.
Belgium: Experienced a 25.8% decline, equivalent to 17,900 fewer tons in storage. This reduction could be related to an increase in exports, which may have depleted reserves for domestic consumption. Additionally, international market competition likely played a role in these figures.
Czech Republic: This country saw a particularly sharp decline of 60.7%, representing around 4,586 tons. This significant drop suggests a notable mismatch between supply and demand, undoubtedly exacerbated by a major decline in production.
France: Stock levels decreased by just 0.42%, but in absolute terms, this represents a reduction of over 40,000 tons. The French context indicates that exports fell by approximately 15% compared to last year, particularly to non-EU countries.
Germany: A 16.1% reduction, equivalent to more than 31,100 tons, also characterized the German market. This trend could be linked to high demand for a commodity product in a country where economic recession is taking its toll.
Italy: The situation in Italy is more complex. As one of Europe’s largest apple producers, especially in regions like Trentino-Alto Adige, Italy saw its stocks drop by 12.8%, equating to over 28,000 tons. However, Italy’s stock data requires careful interpretation due to a new calculation method implemented last year. Like France, Italy’s exports have not maintained growth, with sales to the UK notably declining for both countries.
It’s worth noting that while exports from Italy and France are stagnating, only Portugal and Greece show an upward trend. Portugal has increased sales to Brazil, while Greece has expanded its exports to Egypt.
Poland: Europe’s largest producer is still debating between allocating apples for fresh consumption or industrial processing. Exports declined in October and November but picked up again in December.
Denmark: Unlike other countries, Denmark saw a 39.1% increase in stocks, contrasting sharply with the overall downward trend. This growth could result from a long-term storage strategy to anticipate a potential demand surge in early 2025.
Emerging factors and trends
Overall, most European countries experienced a reduction in apple stocks during November, driven by a combination of high seasonal demand, significant exports, and logistical challenges, such as those posed by exports to India, which require routing around the entire African continent. However, countries like Denmark illustrate that some regions are opting to increase stocks as a precautionary measure.
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Another critical factor is the impact of international trade. Countries like France, Germany, and Italy, with significant production capacities, have struggled to balance exports with domestic needs, often leading to a decline in local inventories.
Implications for the horticultural market
The widespread reduction in apple stocks across Europe in November carries important implications for the sector. On one hand, the decrease reflects active commercial dynamics fueled by strong demand. However, it also poses significant challenges, such as the risk of shortages in early 2025 and potential upward pressure on prices.
In Italy’s case, the stock reduction highlights the need for balance to prevent supply mismatches and ensure market stability.
