Now, the trade agreement with Mercosur must pass through the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU), a decision that freezes its processing and could put its ratification at risk after a quarter of a century of negotiations. The vote was extremely close: 334 MEPs in favour, 324 against and 11 abstentions.
The ruling could take more than a year. On the eve of the vote, thousands of farmers demonstrated in Strasbourg. However, at the time of writing, the scenario remains open, as the Commission itself could move forward with a provisional application of the agreement while the appeal is being resolved.
The largest trade agreement known to date, accounting for 20% of global GDP and 700 million consumers, is for the moment frozen.
The treaty will be very beneficial for the automotive industry (that is, if Chinese cars do not colonise Latin America first, as is already happening in Spain), as well as for Spanish olive oil and wines, but it has failed to take the primary sector into account: meat from the pampas will compete with Spanish pork. As if competition from South Africa in citrus were not enough, larger volumes will also arrive from Uruguay, Paraguay, Argentina and Brazil.
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The agreement includes safeguard clauses to be implemented in three phases: tariffs below 5% will be eliminated once the agreement enters into force; products with tariffs between 5.1% and 10% will be phased out over four years; and those with tariffs above 10.1% will be eliminated over a seven-year period.
In 2024, the EU exported fruit and vegetables worth €255 million, while imports amounted to €984 million, resulting in a very negative trade balance for Europe.
Safeguard clauses —with which there is already some experience in the case of Morocco, as they are not applied— remain on paper and rarely translate into practice.
While the appeal is being resolved, a provisional application of the agreement may move forward.
