The Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food has estimated an initial national citrus production forecast of 5.44 million tons for the 2025/2026 season, which began on September 1.
According to the forecast, based on data from producing autonomous communities, production will be 655,000 tons lower than last season (-10.7%) and 14.2% below the average of the last five seasons. This makes it the smallest harvest in the past 16 years. The decline is mainly due to excessive spring rains, high temperatures during critical fruit development stages and hailstorms in various growing areas.
Oranges will reach 2.72 million tons, 11.6% (-356,300 tons) less than the previous season and 14.4% (-459,900 tons) below average. They represent 50.1% of total volume, with 71% of oranges belonging to the Navel group.
Small citrus will reach 1.73 million tons, 8.2% (154,100 tons) less than the previous season and 14.1% below average (-283,700 tons). This type of citrus accounts for 31.9% of the total. Satsumas represent 5.4% of this group; clementines, 52.2%; and the rest of mandarins and hybrids, 42.3%.
Lemon production will drop to 866,654 tons, 14.7% (149,400 tons) less than last season and 17.3% (-180,800 tons) below average. Of these, 77.3% will be Fino and 22.1% Verna varieties.
Grapefruit production, with a forecast of 107,902 tons, will exceed last season (already a record) by 8% (+8,000 tons). It will also be 26.4% (+22,570 tons) above average, setting a record campaign for the third consecutive year.
€3.6 billion in sales
Despite the sharp drop in production, Spain remains the leading citrus producer in the European Union and the sixth worldwide. Between 2019/20 and 2023/24, it exported an average of 3.5 million tons per season, with an average annual value close to €3.6 billion.
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The country also leads global fresh citrus trade, accounting for nearly 25% of exports. More than half of national production (55%) is destined for foreign markets, exceeding 60% in small citrus and lemons, and reaching nearly 85% in grapefruit.
Competition in the Mediterranean
The production of Mediterranean countries coincides on international markets, and Spain is losing shelf space in Europe to younger producing regions. Cheaper labor, cutting-edge technology and better-adapted varieties mean strong competition from countries that harvest at the same time as Spain.
All forecasts suggest that Turkey will not play a strong role this season due to the severe frosts suffered in April, when much of the fruit was in bloom. Citrus production is expected to fall by 20–40% compared to a standard season.
Egypt, by contrast, shows a 15% production increase, although still below its full potential. There has also been a strong rise in juice processing facilities, which could absorb part of the fresh export market.
Morocco has fewer citrus fruits. In general, its production is falling because last year’s crop was abundant and due to the natural alternation of trees. Persistent drought problems are also hampering not only citrus but other crops as well. Nadorcott set an export record last season with 330,000 tons.
Greece will not see major changes compared to the previous season. The Argolida region will have more production, while Laconia will have less. Italy also expects no major changes, only better calibers with fewer fruits per tree.
Issues of concern
Industry stakeholders face key challenges such as plant health, aspects of the food chain and contracts, public aid and the outlook for citrus within the next CAP. One of the most pressing issues is the risk and rate of introduction of exotic pests and pathogens into European citrus production, which continues to rise due to global trade, open markets and the growing impact of climate change on plant health.
Meanwhile, the Ministry has presented the main aspects of the proposed CAP reform for the sector, maintaining the legislative basis applied so far. Sectoral interventions in sectors with recognized Producer Organizations (POs), such as citrus, will be mandatory in the new CAP framework. The Fruit and Vegetable Sectoral Intervention (ISFH) will be integrated into the National and Regional Partnership Plan, allowing continued support through operational programs for production marketed via POs.
