The international team of scientists analyzed over 12,000 subnational regions across 55 countries and concluded that for every 1°C rise in global temperatures, food production could drop by an average of 120 calories per person per day—equivalent to a 4.4% decline in daily intake.
Published in Nature, the report reveals that even with adaptation strategies in place, highly productive agricultural zones are set to experience steep declines in the yields of key crops. This finding challenges the conventional belief that climate impacts will be felt more intensely in lower-income nations.
“In this case, the regions with the most favorable conditions today are the most vulnerable tomorrow,” said Andrew Hultgren, assistant professor at the University of Illinois and lead author of the study. “Farmers in temperate areas like the Midwest are not used to coping with extreme heat, so they’re less prepared for what’s coming.”
These findings follow another Nature study that shows an unprecedented rise in global drought severity, with 2022 marking a year in which 30% of Earth’s landmass endured moderate to extreme drought—42% of which was driven by elevated atmospheric demand caused by rising temperatures.
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The new research underscores a counterintuitive pattern: areas currently benefiting from temperate and predictable weather are less resilient to the extremes brought by climate change. Meanwhile, farmers in traditionally hotter, lower-income countries have already adapted practices to cope with climate stress.
“This doesn’t mean lower-income regions are safe,” Hultgren cautioned. “But it does mean they’ve had more time to build resilience. That’s something producers in higher-latitude countries must begin to do—urgently.”
