According to a statement by José Antonio Castro, president of ProHass, the new estimate is 655,000 tons, a lower volume than initially expected.
Despite this, the sector remains optimistic thanks to an estimated 30% increase compared to the 2024 season. Arturo Medina, manager of ProHass, said that this reduction reflects a more realistic view of production. “We are going from a 37% growth projected in March to 30% now. Although lower, it is still a significant increase,” said Medina.
ProHass said that this increase should be analyzed with care. “The 30% growth mentioned for this season may sound very positive, but you have to keep in mind that it is calculated against 2024, an atypical year in which productivity was severely affected by the warm weather in the winter and spring of 2023, especially on the northern coast of the country, where the main Hass avocado producers are located. If we compare these prospects with those of a more representative year, such as 2023, growth is estimated at around 17%, which is much lower.
So, it’s important to keep the context in mind for a more accurate reading of the sector’s performance,” said Medina.
The European market remains the main destination for Peruvian avocados, with a projected growth of 24% and a 42% share of that market. Despite the 10% tariffs in the United States and the higher shipping tariffs, exports to the North American country are projected to grow by 75% compared to 2024 and will represent 18% of the total volume.
Medina highlighted the sector’s strength, as despite logistical complications and adjusted projections, it continues to expand thanks to operational efficiency and market diversification. “The joint work of producers, exporters, and authorities has been key to remaining competitive,” he said.
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The information gathered by ProHass is based on data from the main Peruvian exporters. Medina said that the association gathers data not only on the volumes exported, but also on the projections for the whole season. “We are currently encouraging exporters to share with us information on calibers, as this has a direct impact on prices on the international market,” he said.
As for the obstacles that the sector is facing, Medina pointed to the importance of exporting the right sizes. “Medium sizes are the most in demand abroad; when a lot of large or small sizes are exported, prices tend to fall,” he said.
ProHass will continue to monitor markets and adjust its strategies to guarantee the sustainability of Peruvian exports. According to Medina, the support of the Ministry of Agriculture has been fundamental in tackling other complications, such as those related to the presence of cadmium in the crops.
