According to the World Citrus Association, total citrus production for 2025/2026 will fall by 1.51% compared with the previous campaign, reaching 27,397,239 tonnes, a figure that also represents a 5.13% decrease relative to the average of the past four seasons.
Exports are likewise expected to decline: 0.81% compared with the previous season and 8.25% below the average of the last four years.
The 2024/2025 campaign consolidated the trend towards reduced volumes, both in gross production and in marketable output. Although this moderation allowed for generally acceptable commercial results, it has also contributed to a perceived loss of Spain’s strategic relevance as a global supplier in the face of growing competition.
Consumption fails to take off in Europe
The downward trend in mandarin consumption within the European Union continues to be evident.
Among the main producers, Spain will register a 9.72% decrease compared with the previous campaign, reaching a total volume of 5.59 million tonnes (Mt), 11.20% below the average of the past four campaigns.
Italy, the second-largest EU producer, also forecasts a reduction of 6.12%, down to 3 Mt. Greece (1.23 Mt) likewise expects a slight decrease of 1.58%. Portugal, which is providing data for the second consecutive year, anticipates growth of 14.20% (0.38 Mt).
In non-EU Mediterranean countries, Egypt forecasts growth of 13.85%, which would position it as the region’s largest producer with 4.95 Mt. Turkey, by contrast, anticipates a sharp decline of 10.83% compared with last season and 15.31% below the average of the past four campaigns, with a total of 4.42 Mt.
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In Morocco, production will remain stable at around 2.09 Mt. Among smaller producers, Israel reports the largest increase, 24.12% (0.53 Mt), while Tunisia expects a 3% decrease (0.37 Mt). Although the USDA’s annual forecast has been delayed due to the partial shutdown of the U.S. government, initial estimates for California and Florida point to growth of 4.53%, placing U.S. production at 4.85 Mt, pending revision.
By category, orange production — representing 51% of total volume — will fall by 2.16%, reaching 13.86 Mt. The forecast for soft citrus (mandarins, clementines and satsumas) points to an increase of 5.91%, reaching 8.51 Mt. Lemons, meanwhile, will experience a decrease of 12.38%, with 4.23 Mt. Finally, grapefruit production will rise slightly to 0.79 Mt, an increase of 1.17% compared with 2024/2025.
Impact of climate change
Weather patterns continue to show clear effects of climate change in Europe’s main campaign, Spain’s, with very high summer temperatures affecting final product volumes and adding stress to crop development.
Competitors gain ground on Spain
Egypt has surpassed Spainin orange production (3,15M.t), although its exports to Europe are expected to be partly mitigated by its expanding juice-processing industry. Similarly moderate commercial behaviour is anticipated from Moroccan citrus, given the irrigation challenges they have faced. Turkish production has declined sharply in oranges and lemons, but hands recover in mandarins and grapefruit; however, difficulties in some of its traditional markets may lead Turkey to redirect exports towards the European Union. Greece remains stable, with improved service reliability in recent years.
