The first estimates for the 2025/2026 citrus campaign point to a production of 2,509,950 tons, a reduction of 217,126 tons compared to the previous season, equivalent to 8%. Compared to two years ago, the decline is 376,043 tons (-13%), while against the average of the last five campaigns the drop amounts to 547,893 tons (-17.9%). The difference with the average of the last decade is even greater, with 759,351 tons less (-23.2%). If the previous harvest had already been the lowest in the last 40 years, the current one falls even further.
Weather conditions have once again punished production. Abnormally high temperatures, heavy rainfall in March, and hailstorms recorded during May, July, and August have again reduced harvest expectations. Flowering had been abundant, though delayed by the rains and cool conditions in March.
However, the extreme heat at the end of that month caused many flowers to drop or rot. Added to this were the hailstorms of May and June, which hindered fruit set. In June—the hottest since at least 1950, according to AEMET—the fruit drop was very high, and those that remained on the tree did not grow at the expected pace. The hail and high temperatures of July and August also had negative effects, although to a lesser extent.
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The phytosanitary outlook for the crop has also been unfavorable. An increase in pests has been detected amid difficulties in finding effective plant protection products. Red spider mite (Tetranychus urticae) has expanded its presence, joined by the spread of the Asian mite (Eutetranychus asiaticus). Persistent rainfall, combined with high temperatures and humidity, has favored the spread of alternaria. In some plots, there has been greater incidence of South African mealybug, while whitefly remains under control thanks to applied management strategies.
To all this is added the reduction in cultivated area recorded in 2025. In the province of Valencia, the October 2024 DANA particularly affected farms near ravines and rivers. In these areas, an increase in riverbeds, gullies, and construction works has contributed to the decline of citrus cultivation.
Early Purchases
Lower fruit forecasts have led to the start of purchases being brought forward by about five weeks compared to the previous campaign, beginning in week 30 instead of week 35, with generally similar prices. The hail episodes in July and their possible impact on reduced production have increased interest in finding plots of higher quality. As a result, purchases have accelerated especially for Clemenules and Navelina varieties. During August, quotations for these two varieties were higher than those recorded in the previous two campaigns and also above the average of the last five campaigns.
By Variety
The first estimates indicate that sweet orange production this season will reach 1,226,399 tons (-4.4% vs. last season, -5.1% vs. two years ago, -15.2% vs. the five-year average, and -21.8% vs. the ten-year average). Mandarin production is estimated at 1,047,086 tons (-9.3% vs. 2024/2025, -14.3% vs. 2023/2024, and -19.8% and -25.2% below the five- and ten-year averages, respectively). Lemon production will fall to 209,051 tons (-21.8% vs. last season, -40.6% vs. two years ago, and -27.0% and -25.2% below the five- and ten-year averages, respectively). Grapefruit production is expected at 25,954 tons (+25.4% vs. last season, +43.1% vs. two years ago, 44.1% above the five-year average, and 31.1% above the ten-year average).
By Province
The 2025/2026 citrus campaign points to generalized declines across the three producing provinces, though with varying intensity.
Alicante: The harvest will decrease by 15.2% to 486,409 tons, 87,133 tons less than in 2024/2025 and 139,260 less than the five-year average (-22.3%). The sharpest decline corresponds to lemons, with 57,730 tons less (-21.9%), particularly in the Verna variety (-34.1%) and also in Fino (-14.0%). Mandarins fall 16.5% (-23,266 t), mainly due to lower production of Clemenvilla, Marisol, Oronules, and satsumas. Oranges drop 6.0% (-9,579 t), with decreases in Navel, Salustiana (-36.3%), and Sanguina (-35.3%). Only grapefruit increases, with 3,452 tons more (+39.8%).
Castellón: Production will total 542,671 tons, 9.4% less than last season (-56,326 t) and 14.7% below the five-year average (-93,859 t). The decrease is mainly due to mandarins (-8.0% and -36,599 t), especially mid-season clementines (-23,479 t) and hybrids (-20.5% and -17,855 t). Satsumas also fall, while early clementines rise 15.4% (+6,549 t). In oranges, the drop affects the Navel group, particularly late varieties (-15,805 t). Among Blancas, the increase in Valencia Late (+9.5% and +2,911 t) offsets the fall in Salustiana (-29.2% and -742 t).
Valencia: The forecast is also negative, with a decline of 4.7% vs. 2024/2025 and 17.5% vs. the five-year average. An estimated 956,000 tons of oranges and 508,363 tons of mandarins are expected. The drop is significant in hybrids (-16.5% and -36,102 t), especially Clemenvilla (-37.4% and -17,294 t), as well as satsumas (-18,521 t). Clementines rise 3.0% (+7,236 t), though remain far below the five-year average (-28.9% and -48,178 t). In oranges, the recovery of Valencia Late (+17.2% and +20,038 t) does not offset the fall in the Navel group (-4.9% and -40,052 t), concentrated in mid-season and late varieties.
