Globally, the avocado market is valued at 18 billion dollars, with a 7% annual production increase over the decade of 2012-2022. In 2022, 8.4 million tonnes of what has been called ‘green gold’ were produced, according to figures from theFAO, USDA and Rabobank Group.
On a consumption level, Europe has experienced a general growth over the 2015/2021 period. France is the main consumer in the EU, although the largest figure per capital is held by the citizens of the Netherlands, with 2.85kg per person and year.
In the year 2022, the Top 10 in global avocado production was led by Mexico (2.4 million tonnes), followed by Colombia (0.98) and Peru (0.77). But the most striking countries were at the bottom of the list, due to the growing interest of different sources: African countries such as Kenya and Ethiopia experienced a production increase (0.42and0.1 million tonnes respectively), as did others such as Tanzania and Morocco. The evolution of the last source on this list is worth mentioning in particular, and it is in the sights of many of the Mediterranean agents, starting with Spain.
In just a decade, Morocco has undergone an important growth in its avocado export capacity and it has managed to position itself in the top 10 suppliers of the European market. The figures for this progression are revealing: in the 2012/13 campaign, they only marketed 1,157 tonnes outside the country, but in the latest campaign, 2022/23,the figures reached 47,100 tonnes, according to data from Comtrade and Eurostat. It is estimated that Morocco already has around 12,000 hectares of avocado crop surface area. A figure that triples that of 2018, when they accounted for 4,000 has.
TheEU-27 and the United Kingdom are the destination of virtually all the Moroccan avocado exports. In 2022/23, the Moroccan sector marketed45,600 t of avocados on these markets, and only 1,500 were exported to other destinations.
In this campaign, the export volume could be increased by over 25%. According to declarations made recently to Africanewsby the Chairman of the Moroccan Avocado Exporters Association, Abdellah Elyamlahi, Moroccan production could reach 60,000 tonnes in 2024. Looking towards 2027/28, the export potential could double, reaching 100,000 t, as advanced by the specialised publication FruiTrop.
In 2022/23, Morocco was the only country of the three main Mediterranean agents that has slightly increased its exports (the abovementioned 47,100 t), in spite of the weather problems that affected the crops (albeit in a limited way). The heat wave that occurred at the beginning of June resulted in falling fruit, but the incidence in the avocado region, located mainly along the coastal strip to the north of the country, was nothing like the problems faced by other types of crops further to the south, in the Agadir region.
Production regions and challenges
The avocado plantations are mainly concentrated in northern Morocco, between Larache and northern Rabat, along a coastal strip that is approximately 140 km long and justover 7 km wide.Towns such as Sidi Bouknadel, southern Kenitra, Ouled Berjal, Sidi Allal Tazi, Ouled Mesbah, Moulay Bousselham and Larachebring together the best conditions in the country for avocado crops due to the local climate and greater water availability compared to the rest of Morocco. The crops in this area cannot be extended and another three focal points have been established around Sidi Slimane and Sid Yahya, where the expansion is moving very fast and there are already over one thousand cultivated hectares.
However, this rising evolution will have a limit. From the Moroccan Government, at the end of January, the Minister of Agriculture, Mohammed Sadiki, announced the restriction of the expansion of avocado crops, along with others such as watermelons and citrus fruits, in favour of other more drought-resistant crops, such as pistachios or carobs. The systematic water shortage is a growing challenge, as can be seen by the six years running of drought that the country is experiencing. At the end of January, the Minister for Water, Nizar Baraka, emphasised the importance of acting against an unprecedented environmental crisis. The drastic reduction in rainfall, almost 70% below the normal seasonal average, is having serious effects, with reservoirs at 23.5%of their capacity. The Moroccan Public Administration has announced “immediate steps”, such as the speeding up of their water strategy, which is fundamentally based on desalination, in addition to other actions such as the interconnection of river basins, the construction of reservoirs and tertiary treatment of waste water to increase the available water resources.
For the year 2027 they have seven new desalination plants projected, aimed at diversifying the water contribution for irrigation. One of them is the Casablanca plant, which is about to start construction. This strategy would allow the cultivation possibilities to be extended to new areas of the country, outside the ‘traditional’ ones. Other approaches that are faster to implement involve the adoption of precision irrigation using sensors and IoT (Internet of Things) technologies, with a view to obtaining a more efficient use of the water.
But the medium-term solutions will not be enough and, meanwhile, the Public Administration does not rule out implementing “drastic steps” in the regions worst affected by the drought, amongst which are temporary cuts in the supply and limitation and even prohibition of the crops that require more water, as Sadiki announced.
Focus of attention
The investment in water infrastructures and the lower cost of labour are some of the more attractive factors of Morocco as a production region. Recently, foreign groups from different countries (Spain, Israel, Qatar), became interested in this country for investing in avocado production. On the other side of the Straits of Gibraltar, the Spanish sector is divided into two camps. On the one hand, there are those who see Morocco as an option to guarantee supply 12 months of the year. And, on the other hand, there are those who do not even consider it on their road map (at least, at the moment), affirming that, if there is willingness and the necessary infrastructures are started, Spain can continue increasing its production of ‘green gold’, invoking greater quality as its flagship. Time will tell whether we should fear our neighbour or not.
