The World Citrus Association (WCA) has published its annual citrus fruit forecast for the northern hemisphere for the citrus fruit 23/24 season at the Global Citrus Outlook conference, held on the 15th of November.
This forecast, based on data from the main producing countries, shows that the harvest will reach 28,976,001 tonnes, meaning 12.2% more than in the last season and 1.48% more than the average for the past 4 campaigns. Regarding total exports, it is expected that they will follow a similar trend, reaching 9,483,770 tonnes: 11.4% more than in the previous season and with respect to the average over the latest campaigns, this will be 4.5% higher.
Philippe Binard, General Secretary of the WCO, explains that “the market prospects indicate a recovery from the lowest point of the last season. This growth is mainly due to Turkey and Egypt, while other countries are remaining stable or are recording marginal increases.”
Eric Imbert, from the CIRAD, adds that “although this year’s forecasts show a recovery, other parameters need to be taken into consideration for the market analysis,” and he continues stating “particularly weather questions such as late frosts, drought, heat waves or new pests and diseases, because they affect the quality, colouring or delays in the harvests.” He also concludes that “the market will continue to be affected by the geopolitical instability, while the demand by consumers may be influenced by limitations to their spending power, along with inflation.”
The European Union
By region, in the producing countries belonging to the EU, firstly, a Spanish harvest of 5.9 million tonnes, 2% higher than the previous seasons is expected. Mandarin production remains stable and an increase in the lemon harvest is forecast as well, whereas oranges will drop by 6%. In Italy, the total production is increasing by 6% thanks to the 20% growth in oranges, but both the mandarin and the lemon harvests are dropping by 10%. Greece is lagging behind by 7% to 1.1 million tonnes.
In the other Mediterranean countries, Turkey is now the market leader, with a first production estimate of 6.5 million tonnes which, in fact, could even reach over 7 million. This is owing to the increase in crop surface area and in productivity, rotation and favourable weather conditions. Egypt, with 5.4 million tonnes, has increased by 10% over the last campaign and by 15% compared to the average over the past 4 campaigns. In Egypt, the main category being produced is oranges, with 3.7 million tonnes (+5%), while mandarins, with a two-digit growth figure, should reach over one million tonnes. A partial recovery of the Moroccan production to slightly over 2 million tonnes is expected, with 1 million tonnes of mandarins (+11%) and 930,000 tonnes of oranges. Israel’s production is estimated at 365,000 tonnes, but the recent conflict and attacks on the country are causing many challenges regarding supply, logistics and human resources for harvesting and packaging.
US production
The production in the United States will increase by 1%, reaching 4.5 million tonnes, with more oranges, (+10%, up to 2.4 million) but fewer mandarins, (-2%, to 856,000 t) and even fewer lemons (-12% with 889,000 t).
Regarding citrus fruit marketing, Binard affirms that “world citrus fruit exports will increase by 11% until reaching 9.4 million tonnes, while processed produce will increase by 8%, reaching 4.7 million, leaving 14.7 million tonnes for national sales (+14%).”
