The updated projection represents an 8.4% decrease compared with the previous season, when exports reached 67.9 million boxes. It also reflects a slight downward revision of 1.9% compared with the third estimate issued earlier in the campaign.
According to Caballero, the adjustment responds mainly to a sharper-than-expected decline in northern production areas, combined with an ongoing varietal replacement process that, although advancing rapidly, has not fully offset the reduction in traditional varieties. Climatic factors and shifting production dynamics across regions have also contributed to the revised outlook.
Regional performance
Compared with the previous estimate, most regions have revised their volumes downward, with the exception of the Metropolitan Region and Maule.
Atacama shows a contraction of 12%, Valparaíso declines by 2%, and O’Higgins by 1.4%. Coquimbo remains stable, while Maule posts a significant increase of 63% and the Metropolitan Region grows by 1.7%.
RELATED NEWS: Chile sees strong prospects as table grape production increases
Caballero noted that exports have so far been running 22% below last season’s pace, although this gap is expected to narrow in the coming weeks as higher volumes from the Metropolitan Region and O’Higgins enter the market.
Industry modernisation accelerates
Despite the overall drop in export volume, the structural transformation of the industry continues. New varieties are projected to account for 72% of total export supply, up from 67% last season.
Among them, new white grape varieties such as Autumncrisp and Sweet Globe are leading the shift, showing sustained growth and consolidating their position within Chile’s export portfolio.
Market distribution: Latin America gains ground
The fourth estimate also reveals notable changes in market distribution compared with the third report. Latin America is the only destination showing growth, with shipments increasing by 15.6%, equivalent to a six-percentage-point rise in market share.
In contrast, exports to Asia are projected to decline by 13%, Europe by 7.2%, and North America — the main destination for Chilean grapes — by 2.4% compared with the third estimate. Shipments to North America are also down 12% compared with the previous season.
Finally, Caballero highlighted that the weekly shipping schedule has been affected by delays in central production zones and lower yields in the north, leading to a more concentrated logistics flow toward the end of the season.
