An exceptionally strong El Niño, high fuel and energy costs and increasingly variable weather conditions are emerging as major risk factors for global agricultural production, according to the October edition of the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) Anomaly Hotspots of Agricultural Production assessment.
The analysis points to contrasting agricultural conditions across the world, with some regions benefiting from favourable rainfall while others face severe drought, high temperatures, production losses and growing food security concerns.
Southern Africa faces a difficult 2026/27 season
Land preparation and summer cereal planting have begun across Southern Africa, although weather conditions remain mixed. Below-average rainfall has affected some areas, with a slight delay in the agricultural season visible in parts of Angola and Zambia.
Climate forecasts indicate drier-than-average conditions and high temperatures across central and southern SADC areas through March 2027, driven by the combination of a strong El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole.
The outlook is particularly concerning for maize, the region’s main staple crop and one that is highly vulnerable to drought. The JRC therefore highlights the need to closely monitor crop and pasture conditions during the 2026/27 season.
East Africa under pressure from drought and high temperatures
In East Africa, the main agricultural harvest is coming to an end, but below-average rainfall and high temperatures have significantly affected production.
The situation is particularly difficult in conflict-affected areas such as Somalia, Sudan and South Sudan, where deteriorating agricultural conditions are contributing to food insecurity. Ethiopia is facing similar pressures amid renewed violence, while higher global grain prices are increasing the cost of imports.
The October–December 2026 forecast from ICPAC points to above-average rainfall in parts of the region, which could support new crops and replenish pasture. However, heavier rainfall also brings the risk of crop-damaging floods.
West and Central Africa maintain a stronger outlook
Agricultural prospects are more favourable across West and Central Africa, where the main production season is drawing to a close.
Total cereal production is estimated at between 62.8 and 71.1 million tonnes, above the five-year average. Nevertheless, the regional picture includes significant differences between production areas.
Localized rainfall deficits associated with El Niño have caused production shortfalls and below-average rangeland conditions in parts of Mali, Chad, central Burkina Faso, northern Benin and Nigeria’s Middle Belt. Southern Ghana and southern Togo are also reporting poor biomass conditions in some areas.
Mixed prospects across the Middle East and North Africa
Winter cereal sowing is underway across the Middle East and North Africa, with conditions varying considerably between countries.
Favourable rainfall is supporting barley and wheat sowing in Iran, Iraq and Syria, while parts of North Africa are experiencing drier-than-average conditions. Central Algeria and Tunisia are among the areas facing rainfall deficits, although Morocco is expected to receive near-average rainfall for November planting.
In Yemen, summer cereals and wheat are showing favourable prospects despite delayed planting in the Eastern Plateau. Severe food insecurity remains a major concern, however, with around 18 million people affected by the combination of conflict and difficult socioeconomic conditions.
Central Asia and South Asia show more favourable conditions
In Central Asia, harvesting of spring cereals and summer crops has largely concluded with generally good prospects. Winter cereal sowing is progressing under mixed conditions, with normal conditions reported in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, while Kyrgyzstan and southern Kazakhstan have experienced drier weather.
El Niño-related rainfall is expected to support future crop development in parts of the region.
Meanwhile, agricultural conditions remain broadly positive in South Asia. Pakistan’s Kharif rice and maize harvests have favourable prospects despite dry conditions in the south, while Rabi sowing has begun. Bangladesh is also reporting a highly favourable rice outlook, and North Korea has completed its maize and rice harvests with good prospects.
El Niño hits Latin America and the Caribbean
The most severe impacts are being reported in parts of Latin America and the Caribbean, where El Niño-related drought and record precipitation deficits have caused major agricultural losses.
In Central America, many subsistence farmers have lost more than 75% of their primera maize and bean harvests, while continued dry conditions are threatening the postrera season.
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South America is also facing significant weather extremes. Peru and Bolivia have declared national emergencies because of severe drought, while some coastal areas have simultaneously experienced heavy flooding.
The Caribbean is also experiencing below-average rainfall, although agricultural conditions are further constrained by underlying socioeconomic pressures.
Weather and input costs add to global uncertainty
The JRC assessment highlights how climate variability and rising production costs are increasingly interacting to create additional risks for agriculture.
Alongside the effects of El Niño, persistent supply pressures and commodity market trends have contributed to higher local food prices in several regions.
The combination of drought, excessive rainfall, high temperatures and elevated fuel and energy costs therefore continues to create a challenging environment for agricultural producers. The contrasting conditions across regions also underline the growing importance of monitoring weather patterns, crop development and food supply risks as the 2026/27 agricultural season progresses.
