The Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food presented the initial estimates during the citrus sector meeting held with the participation of the main industry organisations, including FEPEX.
Ana Rodríguez Castaño, Secretary General for Agricultural Resources and Food Safety, explained that the forecast was prepared using data provided by the main producing regions.
The new campaign, which began on 1 September, therefore starts with an expected production of 5.74 million tonnes, compared with the 2025/26 season, which closed with the lowest output of the last decade.
More water availability, but lower production due to heat
Water availability has improved thanks to rainfall recorded during the winter and spring, which increased resources in the main production areas.
However, high summer temperatures caused fruit drop and reduced initial production expectations, particularly for oranges and clementines.
The result is a moderate recovery compared with the previous season, although still insufficient to return to the average levels of the last five campaigns.
Orange production falls while lemon recovers
By product category, orange production is expected to reach around 2.8 million tonnes, representing a 4.6% decrease compared with 2025/26.
Small citrus fruits are forecast at approximately 1.8 million tonnes, with slight growth of 0.8%.
Lemon production, however, will show a very different trend, recovering to 991,800 tonnes, 21% higher than in the previous season.
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Grapefruit production will also continue its upward trend, exceeding 110,000 tonnes, a new record level and a 4.7% year-on-year increase.
Market and plant health among key topics discussed
The sector meeting also analysed the commercial outlook for the new campaign, the evolution of foreign trade and the plant health situation affecting citrus crops.
Among the issues discussed was the monitoring of the citrus yellow vein clearing virus, as well as sector promotion programmes.
The FEPEX delegation included Javier López Esparza and Luis Marín, president and director of Asociafruit respectively, together with Luis Martín, technical director of the federation.
With these forecasts, the sector faces a campaign marked by an uneven recovery depending on the crop, with greater availability of lemons and grapefruit, while orange production is expected to decline.
