The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East has once again placed key maritime routes under pressure. The Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea–Suez Canal corridor handle a significant share of global trade, and any disruption in these strategic chokepoints has a direct impact on logistics flows to Europe.
In recent days, major shipping lines have adopted preventive measures, including rerouting vessels via the Cape of Good Hope, temporarily suspending new bookings to certain destinations and issuing warnings about possible delays. Although no formal closures have been confirmed, the increased operational risk is already reshaping global maritime planning.
Longer transit times and higher logistics costs
The detour around southern Africa adds between 10 and 15 extra sailing days on certain routes between Asia and Europe. This translates into higher fuel consumption, rising insurance premiums and more intensive use of available fleet capacity.
For Spain and the European Union — both heavily dependent on maritime trade — the impact includes:
Higher ocean freight rates
Greater tariff volatility
Potential port congestion
Increased pressure on the availability of refrigerated containers
For perishable goods such as fresh fruits and vegetables, time is a critical factor. Each additional day in transit reduces commercial margins and increases operational risk.
Direct impact on the fruit and vegetable sector
As Europe’s leading exporter of fresh produce, Spain could be affected on two fronts:
Exports to third markets
Routes to the Middle East and Asia may become more expensive or face delays, particularly impacting high-value products with short commercial windows, such as berries, premium citrus and stone fruit.
Imports and agricultural inputs
The European fruit and vegetable supply chain also relies on imported fertilisers, packaging materials, crop protection products and certain tropical fruits. If energy costs continue to rise, the impact will extend to inland transport, cold storage and post-harvest operations.
A prolonged closure or restriction of the Strait of Hormuz would have broader energy implications, as a significant share of global crude oil trade passes through this route. Higher fuel prices would directly affect agricultural and logistics costs.
Red Sea crisis becomes entrenched
The Red Sea crisis had already been putting pressure on maritime trade for more than two years. The latest geopolitical escalation reduces the likelihood of a short-term normalization and consolidates vessel diversions as the baseline scenario for 2026.
This means Europe’s logistics system may need to operate for an extended period with longer routes, higher capacity consumption and structurally elevated costs.
Outlook for Spain and Europe
In the short term, the fruit and vegetable sector faces:
Increased uncertainty in export planning
Higher logistics costs
Possible inflationary pressure on imported products
The need to strengthen insurance coverage and contingency planning
In the medium term, if tensions do not ease, Europe could consolidate a more expensive and less predictable transport environment, affecting both export competitiveness and the cost structure of the agri-food sector.
The logistics industry is responding cautiously and preventively. However, the evolution of the conflict will determine whether the impact remains a temporary disruption or becomes a new structural source of tension for European agri-food trade.
