Rising prices of oil, gas and fertilisers, combined with transport bottlenecks, have led us—over the past six years and for the third consecutive time (Covid, Ukraine and Iran)—to an increase in food prices.
The impact is evident in developed economies, where inflation continues to shape consumption patterns. However, it is even more concerning in the most vulnerable populations of poorer countries, where rising prices are putting the food security of millions of people at risk.
The Spanish agri-food sector has repeatedly demonstrated its resilience. However, this capacity to adapt is not unlimited. Absorbing costs across each link in the chain will be a challenging task, but there is no alternative. The final outcome will be seen on the shelves and in consumption, where, it should not be forgotten, price remains the main driver of the shopping basket.
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The Catalan fruit business association, Afrucat, has been one of the first to raise the alarm: rising costs will push stone fruit prices up by between 15% and 20% this summer. At present, costs already reflect increases of around 10% at farm level and a further 10% in packing processes.
Stone fruit consumption has been under pressure for years, facing strong competition from melon and watermelon in price terms, and this year will be no different—although with the added factor that melon and watermelon prices are also expected to rise.
And worst of all, no one knows whether this war will bring us back to square one, because even the International Monetary Fund warns that, whether the Strait of Hormuz remains open, closed or subject to tolls, nothing will be the same again.
