The organisation warns of a drop of more than 95% in maritime traffic through this strategic route, falling from over one hundred vessels per day to fewer than ten. This situation not only jeopardises energy flows, but also directly impacts the agricultural supply chain.
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical point for global fertiliser trade, particularly for nitrogen and phosphate-based products. Gulf countries account for 13% of global nitrogen exports and 9% of phosphate nutrients, both essential for agricultural production.
In addition, significant volumes of liquefied natural gas transit through this route, a key raw material for the production of nitrogen-based fertilisers such as urea and ammonia. Disruptions to these flows threaten to further tighten the global availability of agricultural inputs.
Dependence on imports and pressure on costs
The impact is particularly significant for countries highly dependent on fertiliser imports from the Gulf region. According to UNCTAD, countries such as Sudan, Sri Lanka and Australia source between 32% and 54% of these inputs from this area, increasing their vulnerability to potential disruptions.
At the same time, rising transport and insurance costs are being passed on to fertiliser prices, directly affecting agricultural production costs and, consequently, food prices.
The international body warns of a chain reaction: higher energy, logistics and agricultural input costs increase risks to production, supply and the stability of food markets.
In this context, UNCTAD stresses the need to closely monitor developments, as a prolonged disruption could further intensify pressure on global food security in the coming months.
