The first crop update, released on 10 September, represents a 3.1% increase on the initial forecast.
Around 27.14 million boxes are expected to come from the Triângulo Mineiro region.
Rainfall supports fruit development
Weather conditions between May and August played a key role in the revision.
Average rainfall across the citrus belt reached 210 millimetres, 51% above the historical average for 1991-2020.
Votuporanga recorded rainfall 172% above average, followed by Triângulo Mineiro at 114% and São José do Rio Preto at 83%.
The higher rainfall, combined with the slower harvesting pace, supported fruit growth and led Fundecitrus to improve its expectations for average fruit weight.
The estimate was revised from 255 fruits per box, equivalent to 160 grams per fruit, to 246 fruits per box, or 166 grams per fruit.
Harvest progressing more slowly
By mid-August, around 27% of the crop had been harvested, a slower pace than usual.
Fundecitrus attributes this partly to harvesting fruit at the desired maturity stage for juice processing and to the high proportion of fruit originating from the second bloom.
By that point, 85% of Hamlin, Westin and Rubi oranges had been harvested, compared with 65% of other early-season varieties and 16% of Pera.
Harvesting of the later varieties remained at an early stage, with 1.2% of Valencia and Folha Murcha picked and just 0.1% of Natal.
Higher fruit drop remains a concern
The positive effect of larger fruit has been partly offset by a deterioration in expected fruit retention.
Fundecitrus raised the projected fruit drop rate from 23.7% to 24.1%, citing the impact of the later harvest together with increased pest and disease pressure.
The organisation highlighted greater severity of citrus greening, as well as incidence of leprosis and citrus canker above historical averages, with losses becoming more evident in August.
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Projected fruit drop for Hamlin, Westin and Rubi was increased to 19.4%, while other early varieties rose to 21.0% and Pera to 22.4%.
The estimates for Valencia and Folha Murcha remain at 27.3%, while Natal continues to show the highest projected fruit drop rate at 30.9%.
Despite the higher losses, improved fruit size has been sufficient to lift the overall crop forecast.
Fundecitrus will publish its next update for the 2026/27 orange crop on 10 December, when the organisation will reassess production prospects as harvesting advances.
To view the full report, click here.
