The Tomato Expert Group of the European Commission’s Fruit and Vegetable Market Observatory has analysed the situation in the EU market and the main challenges facing tomato production. These include rising production costs, competition from third countries, climate change, plant health issues and difficulties in securing labour.
The meeting brought together representatives from the European Commission and several Member States, including Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium and Poland. Discussions covered fresh tomato market developments, trade with third countries, market prospects through to 2035 and price trends.
Spain cuts production amid continued cost pressures
The Spanish delegation, which included FEPEX director Ignacio Antequera, presented an overview of the 2025/2026 season, characterised by relatively stable planted area and a production decline of around 2%.
The factors behind this decline included the use of virus-resistant varieties with lower yields, plant health problems and adverse weather conditions. Despite the reduction in output, the Spanish sector demonstrated a strong capacity to adapt and maintained its commercial commitments, reinforcing customer confidence.
Cost pressures nevertheless remain one of the main challenges for growers. In recent months, costs linked to energy, fertilisers and oil-derived products have risen again. The Spanish delegation reported a 16% increase in energy and transport costs compared with conditions considered normal, while plastics, containers and packaging costs have risen by 18%.
As a result, although tomato prices performed favourably during the season, the improvement did not translate into a similar increase in growers’ profitability because of rising production costs.
Cherry tomatoes particularly exposed to Moroccan competition
The situation of cherry tomatoes was a particular concern during the meeting. Spain has experienced a reduction in planted area, especially for loose cherry tomatoes, a trend linked to growing competition from Morocco and differences in labour costs and regulatory conditions.
Moroccan product prices have also put pressure on Spanish cherry tomato prices, making it more difficult for EU growers to remain competitive.
Competition from non-EU countries was, in fact, a concern shared by representatives from several Member States. According to the data presented, EU imports of fresh tomatoes from third countries reached 773,000 tonnes, of which 527,000 tonnes came from Morocco.
Meanwhile, EU tomato exports to third countries stood at 383,000 tonnes, with the UK as the main destination, accounting for 279,000 tonnes.
Climate and plant health put pressure on production
Representatives from other producing countries also highlighted challenges affecting European tomato production as a whole. Belgium, the Netherlands and Poland pointed to the impact of recent heatwaves and rainfall events, as well as the spread of tomato brown rugose fruit virus (ToBRFV) and high energy costs, which are particularly significant for production systems with high energy requirements.
The combination of these factors is adding uncertainty to future production and reinforcing the need to maintain the competitiveness of European tomato production against major non-EU suppliers.
Production and consumption outlook through to 2035
Another issue discussed was the outlook for the tomato market over the next decade. According to an independent study presented during the meeting, and under current conditions, Spanish tomato production could decline by 1.2%, mainly due to competition from non-EU countries, reduced competitiveness as a result of high costs and difficulties in accessing labour.
On the consumption side, experts highlighted growing caution among European consumers as a result of reduced purchasing power and economic uncertainty. This situation is changing purchasing habits and could influence future demand.
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France provided a clear example of this price sensitivity. Increased consumption driven by higher temperatures was subsequently curbed by a sharp rise in prices, resulting in a significant contraction in demand. In Spain, the data presented pointed to a 0.5% decline in vegetable consumption.
Looking ahead, forecasts presented by Wageningen University point to relatively stable tomato consumption in the coming years, with moderate growth of between 0.3% and 0.6% in Spain and the Netherlands.
