The sector is entering the campaign amid a context of international uncertainty, particularly due to the potential impact of the Middle East conflict on demand, energy costs and logistics chains. Nevertheless, the organisation remains confident that steady growth can be maintained if these factors are effectively managed.
Lemons and grapefruit grow, oranges show mixed performance
By category, lemons are leading growth with an expected 45.9 million cartons, representing a 10% increase compared to the previous year. This rise is mainly driven by new orchards coming into production and the recovery of areas affected by adverse weather events.
Orange exports are expected to show a more uneven performance. Navel volumes are forecast at around 30 million cartons, a 5% decrease compared to 2025, although still aligned with the long-term growth trend. Meanwhile, Valencia oranges are projected to increase slightly by 1.6%, reaching 63 million cartons, following an exceptionally strong previous season.
Grapefruit is expected to record one of the highest increases, with export volumes estimated at 15.7 million cartons, up 16% year-on-year, supported by favourable growing conditions.
Mandarins: declines in early varieties
In the early mandarin segment, forecasts point to a slight contraction. Satsuma volumes are expected to remain around 1.5 million cartons, while Nova and Clementine varieties are projected to decline by 3% and 4%, respectively.
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Estimates for late mandarins, which account for the majority of total volumes, will be released in the coming weeks.
Structural challenges and growth opportunities
Beyond production figures, the sector highlights several key factors to sustain long-term growth. These include improving access to strategic markets such as China, India and the United States, as well as enhancing logistics efficiency, particularly in rail transport.
The organisation has also reiterated its concerns over European Union phytosanitary requirements, which it considers a significant barrier to sector development.
Currently, the citrus industry employs around 140,000 people at farm level and stands as the country’s largest agricultural export sector, with strong potential to generate employment and support rural development in the coming years.
