The new figure corresponds to the association’s fourth official forecast, based on information provided by growers and exporters.
The revision confirms that the impact of weather conditions on production has been more persistent than initially expected and is likely to be particularly significant during the central part of the season.
Largest decline expected from week 36 onwards
Although the first weeks of the campaign recorded strong shipment levels and good volumes, Proarándanos warns that this performance does not necessarily reflect the overall development of the crop.
The strong start was supported by the entry into production of early varieties and an increase in planted area.
The main reduction in volumes is expected from week 36 onwards, when the production shortfall associated with weather conditions is likely to become more evident.
The industry is therefore entering the coming weeks with particular attention on crop development and the availability of fruit for international markets.
Organic blueberries also see lower expectations
The revision also affects the organic segment, where the export forecast has been reduced to 25,000 tonnes.
In addition to lower volumes, Proarándanos expects the export peak to shift later in the season. The busiest week is now forecast for around week 48, with approximately 1,200 tonnes.
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This compares with the previous season, when the peak was reached in week 40 at around 1,900 tonnes.
New revision scheduled for October
The outlook remains open because weather anomalies are persisting and could continue to affect crop development.
Proarándanos is therefore not ruling out a further downward adjustment and has scheduled a fifth comprehensive review for October, when it will reassess field conditions and the pace of shipments.
The evolution of the coming weeks will be decisive in determining the final impact of the weather on a season in which Peru is once again facing the challenge of adjusting supply to increasingly variable production conditions.
