International maritime transport is facing an increasingly uncertain outlook for the second half of the year. The crisis in the Persian Gulf, volatility in energy prices and still-weak demand are weighing on shipping line operations, prompting carriers to introduce additional blank sailings in an effort to support spot rates.
According to Mundo Marítimo, citing the latest analysis by Judah Levine, Head of Research at Freightos, the suspension by the United States of the so-called Operation Freedom, aimed at escorting transits through the Strait of Hormuz, has temporarily reduced direct military tensions. However, geopolitical risk remains present and continues to affect international shipping routes.
Hormuz adds pressure on costs
The situation in the Persian Gulf has been further complicated by Iran’s announcement of the creation of a Persian Gulf Strait Authority, under which vessels would be required to request authorisation — and potentially pay — to transit this strategic maritime route.
In this context, Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc has estimated that the rise in fuel prices resulting from the partial closure of Hormuz is generating additional costs of around US$500 million per month for the company. However, the shipping line says it has managed to pass these higher costs on to customers through freight rate increases.
Spot rate performance has varied by route. On the Transpacific, rates have risen by around US$1,000 per FEU compared with pre-conflict levels. By contrast, Asia-Europe rates, which had increased by several hundred dollars per FEU in March, have largely fallen back to pre-war levels.
Blank sailings to support rates
Against this backdrop, shipping lines are preparing new rate increases for mid-month. To sustain spot freight levels, carriers have increased itinerary cancellations, known as blank sailings.
Freightos notes that there are already reports of tight space on east-west services and container rollovers, despite demand remaining weak. This strategy reflects carriers’ efforts to adjust capacity and prevent a sharper decline in freight rates.
A weaker peak season
Forecasts for the Transpacific peak season are also subdued. The latest ocean import report from the US National Retail Federation expects June arrivals to be 2% lower than in May. July is projected to show a 4% month-on-month increase, before easing again in August and September.
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If these forecasts materialise, the seasonal peak would be significantly lower than in recent years. In July, volumes would be 8% below last year’s rebound and 6% below the peak reached in August 2024.
Levine sees this weakness as a sign of caution among importers amid global economic uncertainty. In the same vein, Clerc has warned that a slowdown in ocean demand, driven by rising consumer prices, could make the second half of the year particularly challenging for shipping lines, potentially even loss-making, as they continue to face high bunker costs.
Air cargo begins to stabilise
In air freight, Freightos indicates that elevated jet fuel prices have kept global air cargo rates around 30% above pre-war levels.
However, the market is beginning to show signs of stabilisation as airspace closures decline and capacity gradually recovers among airlines operating in the Persian Gulf.
Trade tensions add further uncertainty
Logistical and energy pressures are being compounded by ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China. Although Donald Trump and Xi Jinping held a summit in Beijing this week in an attempt to stabilise bilateral trade relations, legal disputes continue over US tariffs applied to Chinese goods.
The result is a global shipping market exposed to multiple simultaneous pressures: disrupted routes, high energy costs, weak demand and international trade shaped by geopolitics. In this context, capacity management will be crucial for shipping lines as they try to protect rates and profitability in the months ahead.
