The near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused a historic collapse in global fertiliser trade, according to the OECD, which has confirmed the trend through a new tool designed to monitor maritime traffic of major raw materials.
In April, fertiliser trade recorded its lowest volume since at least January 2019, the starting point of the data series used for this monitoring tool, explained Graham Pilgrim, one of the experts from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) involved in its development, during an online conference on Monday.
Pilgrim recalled that around 30% of the fertilisers used worldwide pass through the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, where they are produced. He also noted that 18 specialised berths have been identified in ports of neighbouring countries, particularly Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Affected destinations
The main destinations for these fertilisers are Brazil, the United States, China and India.
The Strait of Hormuz also handles one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade, flows that have also been reduced by the blockade of the route following the war launched by the United States and Israel against Iran on 28 February.
According to OECD data, 828 vessels that departed from ports in the Persian Gulf with cargo have still not reached their destinations, representing 1.8% of global maritime transport capacity.
By sector, LNG carriers are the most affected in relative terms, accounting for 3.7% of the total, while oil tankers and vessels transporting chemical components are also significantly impacted, at 2.6% and 2.9% respectively.
Vessels that made calls in the Persian Gulf represented 1.3% of the global total during the reference period from January 2019 to April 2026, but 3.1% in terms of cargo volumes transported.
OECD countries are relatively less directly dependent on maritime traffic from the Persian Gulf, with an overall exposure of 1.5%, rising to 4.5% in the case of Japan. This is far lower than in countries closer to the region, such as Madagascar and Pakistan, both at 29%, Kenya at 24%, Oman at 22% and Djibouti at 20%.
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The OECD’s new international trade monitoring tool is based primarily on the Automatic Identification System (AIS) of the International Maritime Organization, which was initially developed to locate ships for safety reasons. The tool covers a total of 23 commodity groups.
To estimate goods flows, the system analyses 29,664 berths across 4,106 ports, through which the vast majority of vessels operate.
Information on vessel movements is combined with data on the goods handled at these berths, including satellite imagery, as well as official statistics on historical trade flows between countries.
Together, these sources allow the OECD to estimate the evolution of international trade.
Based on historical data, the tool can also be used to produce projections, for example to estimate how long it would take to restore supplies of goods currently blocked in the Persian Gulf once the Strait of Hormuz reopens.
The OECD estimates that some of the vessels currently unable to depart would take around six weeks to reach their destinations once the route is reopened.
