Panama Canal traffic rises as El Niño restrictions loom

The Panama Canal recorded a 5.2% increase in total transits and a 7.2% rise in cargo tonnage during the first nine months of fiscal year 2026, while preparing for potential operational restrictions linked to a possible severe El Niño event
PANAMA-CANAL-EL-NIÑO

The Panama Canal reported solid growth in activity between October 2025 and June 2026, with 10,726 total transits recorded as of 30 June, compared with 10,191 in the same period of fiscal year 2025.

According to figures presented during a market update conference call hosted by Bank of America Merrill Lynch, the Canal averaged 35 daily transits over the period. Cargo volume also increased, reaching 389.96 million PC/UMS tonnes, up from 363.66 million PC/UMS tonnes a year earlier.

The Administrator of the Panama Canal, Dr Ricaurte Vásquez Morales, attributed the growth mainly to container ships and liquefied petroleum gas carriers.

Revenue and net income continue to grow

The Canal’s financial performance also improved during the nine-month period. Víctor Vial, Vice President of Finance, reported revenues of US$4.802 billion, representing a 17% year-on-year increase.

Net income reached US$3.614 billion, up 19% compared with the same period last year.

“We continue to strengthen our balance sheet, which is essential for the investments ahead. Demand has also remained very strong,” Vial said.

Strategic projects move forward

Dr Vásquez highlighted that the Canal’s strategic initiatives continue to advance, with both the port terminal and pipeline projects entering the final prequalification stage.

Progress is also continuing on the Río Indio reservoir and the Logistics Corridor project, both considered key to strengthening the Canal’s long-term resilience and operational capacity.

“Our strategic initiatives continue to advance with both the port terminal and pipeline projects entering the final prequalification stage, alongside continued progress on the Río Indio reservoir and the Logistics Corridor project,” said Vásquez.

El Niño raises the risk of new restrictions

Despite the positive operating figures, the Canal is preparing for possible restrictions due to the rising probability of a severe El Niño event. The likelihood of a severe episode has increased from 25% in April to 81% in July.

Dr Vásquez warned that capacity restrictions are likely to be implemented, depending on market conditions. These could include not only draft limitations, but also reductions in the number of daily booking slots.

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The measures would be the first such restrictions in nearly two years, following a period marked by heavy rainfall throughout 2025 and an unusually wet 2026 dry season, which kept reservoir levels above normal.

Río Indio project focuses on long-term water security

Administrator-designate and Deputy Administrator Ilya Espino de Marotta reported progress on the Río Indio Lake project, designed to support the Canal’s long-term water security.

The project has already engaged more than 1,100 residents through conservation and community development programmes. Engineering and design fieldwork has also been completed ahead of a planned 2027 tender process.

The Canal’s latest figures therefore show a strong recovery in traffic and financial performance, but also underline the importance of water management as a decisive factor for future capacity and reliability.

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