Following the latest meeting of the orange variety focus group, the organisation reduced its export estimates for Valencia and Navel oranges to 58 million and 24.3 million 15kg cartons, respectively. These figures represent declines of around 8% for Valencia and 19% for Navel compared with the opening season estimates.
Overall, the total citrus export estimate for South Africa now stands at 197.9 million 15kg cartons, down from the 209.4 million initially forecast in April.
A season with almost every risk factor in play
CGA CEO Boitshoko Ntshabele said the 2026 season has been particularly difficult for citrus growers in Southern Africa. “In a typical year, growers contend with one or two risk factors. However, this year nearly every element of the risk framework materialised negatively in some form,” he said.
Among the factors cited by the CGA are geopolitical shocks, severe weather events, changes in supply and demand patterns, exchange rate risk and shipping and logistics challenges.
Middle East conflict disrupts trade flows
One of the main factors affecting the campaign has been the conflict in the Middle East. According to the CGA, the war involving the United States, Israel and Iran closed off routes to markets that would normally absorb a significant share of South African citrus.
South Africa usually exports around 20% of its crop to the Middle East. Redirecting fruit to other destinations has put pressure on prices in some markets, while the wider economic impact of the conflict has also reduced global purchasing power, particularly among middle-class households.
At the same time, the conflict disrupted the supply of empty containers, caused port congestion and pushed up shipping and logistics costs, adding further financial pressure on growers.
More fruit in fewer markets
CGA chairperson Gerrit van der Merwe explained that South Africa’s production volume remains aligned with the industry’s long-term growth trajectory under its Vision 260 strategy. However, he stressed that this still represents a significant volume of fruit that must move efficiently through ports, onto vessels and into markets within a defined commercial window.
“The war redirected fruit away from some of its usual destinations and into a narrower set of markets. We also saw a longer tail to the Northern Hemisphere supply, causing our early arrivals to overlap to a greater extent than usual and leading to early saturation in some markets,” Van der Merwe said.
Rain and flooding damage production
Weather has added another layer of difficulty to the campaign. Early in the season, heavy rainfall in Limpopo and Mpumalanga created problems, before flooding in the Western Cape and Eastern Cape further worsened the situation.
In some parts of the Eastern Cape, orchards were completely destroyed. These events contributed to the progressive reduction in export estimates and, in certain cases, also had a negative impact on arrival quality.
Nonetheless, the CGA stressed that South Africa has quality assurance systems and phytosanitary protocols designed to manage these risks “fruit by fruit and shipment by shipment”.
Protocols to protect South Africa’s citrus reputation
Ntshabele underlined that the South African industry has pest, disease and quality management protocols for both orchard and post-harvest operations. Backed by growers’ continued investment in scientific research, these systems are designed to ensure that the fruit maintains its reputation for premium quality and meets international phytosanitary requirements, even under particularly demanding conditions.
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The CGA said it is actively working to support the flow of fruit to the markets where it can generate the greatest value for growers. To this end, it is providing market intelligence and sharing critical information through stakeholder engagement platforms.
Particular emphasis was placed on the work carried out in recent months by the organisation’s Middle East Crisis Committee.
Sending the right fruit to the right market
Industry efforts are now focused on ensuring that fruit reaches markets in a predictable and disciplined way. The CGA has recently called on growers and exporters to direct “the right fruit to the right markets” in order to protect South Africa’s image as a responsible supplier of premium-quality citrus.
“Yes, 2026 is tough, but South African citrus growers have proven their resilience many times before, having weathered remarkable challenges over the years,” Ntshabele said.
He added that the industry remains on a sound trajectory and that an unusually challenging season does not alter a fundamental reality: sustainable growth in exports and export markets can boost job creation and support the economic development of rural communities.
Market access and logistics, key priorities
For the CGA, this difficult season reinforces the need to act decisively on the factors that are within the control of both the industry and the Government.
Two priorities stand out: improving market access for growers and making port and rail logistics more efficient.
According to the CGA, progress on these two fronts would go a long way towards strengthening the future of an industry that, despite the current pressure, remains fundamentally strong.
