Weather-related problems, the conflict in the Middle East, logistical difficulties and a more complex trading environment have prompted successive revisions, although the sector remains committed to its long-term growth targets.
From 209.4 to 197.9 million cartons
The Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa (CGA) has lowered its latest export estimate for 2026 to 197.9 million 15-kg cartons, compared with the 209.4 million forecast at the start of the season in April. The revision represents a reduction of 11.5 million cartons, around 5.5% below the initial forecast. New estimate is also below the 204 million cartons with which, according to the association, 2025 ended.
This revision has not taken place all at once. At the beginning of August, the CGA had put expected volumes at 205.3 million cartons, 2% below its initial forecast. At that point, significant adjustments were already being seen in some categories: the mandarin estimate had been reduced by 2.7 million cartons, Navels by 4.6 million and grapefruit by 1.7 million. By contrast, lemons were performing better than initially expected, with the estimate 5.4 million cartons higher than the original forecast.
The subsequent deterioration in conditions prompted a further adjustment. Following the meeting of the orange focus group, the forecast for Valencia oranges was lowered to 58 million cartons, approximately 8% below the figure at the start of the season, while Navels were revised to 24.3 million cartons, a reduction of close to 19%. The CGA warned at the time that further adjustments could still be made if market conditions deteriorated.
Weather, conflict and logistics put the season under pressure
The reduction is the result of a combination of factors that have converged during the same season. Heavy rainfall affected Limpopo and Mpumalanga during the early stages of the campaign, while flooding later hit production areas in the Western Cape and Eastern Cape. The CGA even reported the complete destruction of some orchards in the Eastern Cape and noted that weather conditions had also affected the arrival quality of certain consignments.
These difficulties have been compounded by the impact of the conflict in the Middle East. The region normally absorbs around 20% of South African citrus, but disruption to trade routes has forced some fruit to be redirected to other destinations. This additional concentration of supply has increased pressure on certain markets and complicated the commercial management of a crop that needs to be marketed within very specific windows.
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Conflict has also affected transport. According to the CGA, reduced availability of empty containers has contributed to port congestion and higher shipping costs. This comes on top of rising input costs and structural challenges in South African logistics, with bottlenecks at ports and a rail system that the association considers underutilised.
A narrower European window
Europe has not provided the most favourable environment for South African oranges in 2026 either. The CGA notes that a large Egyptian crop extended the presence of Northern Hemisphere fruit into the beginning of the South African season. Subsequently, unusual weather conditions brought European domestic production forward, narrowing South Africa’s available marketing window at both ends.
Gerrit van der Merwe, Chairman of the CGA, has also pointed out that the extended Northern Hemisphere supply resulted in greater overlap with the first South African arrivals and episodes of early oversupply in some markets. At the same time, the diversion of fruit originally destined for the Middle East concentrated shipments in a smaller number of destinations.
The result is a season in which available volumes have not been the only issue. The ability to place the fruit on the market, the cost of doing so and the timing of its arrival at destination have become decisive factors in final profitability.
Vision 260
This strategy aims to reach exports of 260 million 15-kg cartons by 2032. The CGA itself considers that 2026 production remains consistent with the sector’s long-term growth trajectory, although the potential volume makes it essential to address the obstacles that hinder access to international markets.
For the association, two priorities are particularly important. The first is to diversify and improve market access, whether through new phytosanitary protocols or more favourable tariff conditions. Among the destinations cited by the CGA are the European Union, United States, China, India and Japan.
The second is logistics. The organisation is calling for improvements in port efficiency and greater use of rail transport, as well as broader private-sector participation in both infrastructures.
