South Africa is now expected to export 49.4 million cartons of lemons, nearly 4 million cartons more than initially projected. According to the CGA, the adjustment follows a review by its lemon varietal focus group and is largely due to strong growing conditions in key producing areas.
Although the season started later than usual, three significant cold fronts helped accelerate fruit colour development, improving export readiness. Higher rainfall levels in many lemon-growing regions also supported a positive growth curve, encouraging larger fruit sizes and, ultimately, higher carton volumes.
The CGA said close coordination, effective communication and sufficient logistics capacity across the value chain would be essential to manage the increased volumes.
“These efforts are aimed at ensuring a steady and stable supply of fruit to global markets, while avoiding both under-supply and over-supply at any given time,” the association said.
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Harvesting remains concentrated in key regions, with Senwes, Patensie and the Boland currently accounting for most of the remaining volumes to be picked. The regions showing the strongest upward revisions include Letsitele, in Limpopo, and the Sunday’s River Valley, in the Eastern Cape.
Despite the higher overall forecast, the updated estimate also points to a change in the seasonal profile. The CGA expects the lemon season to end more abruptly than usual, with a noticeable decline in harvesting volumes around mid-July, rather than a gradual slowdown.
The association also confirmed that fruit quality remains excellent this season, reinforcing South Africa’s position as a reliable supplier of high-quality citrus to international markets.
