According to the Multisectoral Commission in charge of the National Study of the El Niño Phenomenon (ENFEN), Coastal El Niño alerts remain in place, while NOAA has assigned a 61% probability to the development of a global El Niño event.
Reports from Peru’s National Meteorology and Hydrology Service (Senamhi) also point to moderate to high agroclimatic risk levels for export crops. Blueberries are particularly sensitive to warmer winter conditions, as flowering and bud break depend on the accumulation of sufficient chilling hours.
Short-term forecasts amid climate uncertainty
In response to this uncertain weather outlook, the Peruvian Blueberry Producers and Exporters Association (Proarándanos) has changed its forecasting approach.
Instead of issuing a full-season projection, the association is now working with short-term estimates. Under this system, Peru is expected to export approximately 56 million kilograms of blueberries through week 33, or mid-August.
This figure represents an increase of almost 40% compared with the start of the previous season, which was affected by earlier weather events. Export volumes will continue to be monitored on a weekly basis.
Varietal replacement gains pace
The industry has also accelerated its process of varietal replacement. During the 2023/24 season, high temperatures affected production in areas dominated by the Ventura variety, which under warm conditions tended to reduce flowering and favour vegetative growth.
Since then, growers in La Libertad, Lambayeque, Olmos and Ica have increasingly replaced older plantings with low-chill and zero-chill varieties.
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According to sector advisors, these varieties are showing a greater ability to maintain productivity and fruit firmness under current winter conditions. However, higher winter temperatures continue to pose important management challenges.
Increased humidity can favour the development of powdery mildew, Botrytis, thrips and mites, requiring more precise and intensive crop management.
More intensive crop management
As a result, growers are strengthening crop management practices, including pruning to improve ventilation, more precise irrigation management, and nutritional and biostimulant programmes aimed at supporting plant performance.
Logistics contingency plans are also in place to maintain fruit shipments and cold-chain operations in the event of rainfall or infrastructure disruptions.
Potential impact on global markets
As the world’s leading blueberry supplier, changes in Peru’s production pattern can influence availability and market planning in the United States, Canada, Europe and China.
If temperature anomalies affect production or concentrate shipments into shorter marketing windows, market conditions could shift and create opportunities for other suppliers such as Chile and Mexico.
Peru, however, is expected to rely on its geographic diversification and expanded production base to maintain shipment continuity throughout the season.
