European Union agricultural markets are expected to remain solid in 2026, according to the summer edition of the short-term outlook report for EU agricultural markets, published by the European Commission.
The report points to a scenario of relative stability for the sector, although it remains subject to significant uncertainty. The main pressure factors include the repercussions of the conflict in the Middle East, weather-related risks, trade tensions and the increase in input costs, which continues to weigh on producers’ margins.
However, the European Commission notes that the report does not take into account the impact of the current heatwaves, which are significantly affecting farmers across several parts of Europe, as the data used were collected before these events occurred.
Rising costs and pressure on margins
In the macroeconomic context, Brussels forecasts real GDP growth at 1.1%, while inflation is expected to rise to 3.1%, mainly driven by energy costs. Food prices are also expected to increase.
Despite this context, the outlook points to favourable crop conditions in the EU. In particular, winter crop yields are expected to stand above the historical average.
However, spring and summer crops could be affected by heat and water shortages, especially in regions more exposed to drought.
Cereals, oilseeds and specialised crops
In the field of arable and specialised crops, EU cereal production in the 2026/27 campaign is expected to return to average levels, reaching 273.7 million tonnes, following the exceptionally high yields recorded in the previous season.
Meanwhile, oilseed production is forecast to increase by 3.1%, while protein crop production would decline slightly, although remaining above average.
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In the case of sugar, EU production could fall as a result of a smaller area devoted to sugar beet. As for olive oil, the Commission expects production to decrease compared with the recovery recorded in 2024/25, although it would remain above the average in the 2025/26 campaign.
Milk production to grow on the back of higher yields
In the area of animal products, the report points to an increase in EU milk supply in 2026, driven by higher yields.
This greater availability of raw milk could support the production of butter, cheese, whey and skimmed milk powder. Dairy exports are expected to remain stable, despite lower demand in the Middle East and trade disruptions.
The European Commission recalls that EU balances are available on the agri-food data portal.
